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El Nino in a changing climate

机译：气候变化中的厄尔尼诺现象

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El Nino events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Nino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies show that the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has become more common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Nino, termed the central Pacific El Nino (CP-El Nino; also termed the dateline El Nino, El Nino Modoki or warm pool El Nino), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Nino (EP-E1 Nino) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. Here we show changes in the ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-E1 Nino under projected global warming scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model data set. Using calculations based on historical El Nino indices, we find that projections of anthropogenic climate change are associated with an increased frequency of the CP-El Nino compared to the EP-El Nino. When restricted to the six climate models with the best representation of the twentieth-century ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-El Nino, the occurrence ratio of CP-El Nino/EP-El Nino is projected to increase as much as five times under global warming. The change is related to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific.
机译：厄尔尼诺事件以赤道东太平洋异常变暖为特征，具有全球气候遥相关，并且是年代际时间尺度上周期性气候变化的最主要特征。因此，了解气候变化中的厄尔尼诺现象的频率或特征的变化具有广泛的科学和社会经济意义。最近的研究表明，在二十世纪后期，规范的厄尔尼诺现象变得不那么频繁了，另一种厄尔尼诺现象变得更加普遍，在这种情况下，太平洋中部的暖海表面温度位于东部和西部。通过较冷的SST。这种类型的厄尔尼诺现象被称为太平洋中部厄尔尼诺现象（CP-El Nino；也被称为日期变更线El Nino，El Nino Modoki或温水游泳池El Nino），与规范的东部太平洋厄尔尼诺现象（EP-E1 Nino）不同最大SST异常的位置和热带中纬度遥相关。在这里，我们从耦合模型比较项目第3阶段多模型数据集中的预测的全球变暖情景下，显示了CP-El Nino与EP-E1 Nino的比率变化。使用基于历史厄尔尼诺指数的计算，我们发现，与EP-El Nino相比，人为气候变化的预测与CP-El Nino频率增加有关。如果只局限于六个气候模型，它们最能代表CP-El Nino与EP-El Nino的20世纪比率，则CP-El Nino / EP-El Nino的发生率预计将增加五倍在全球变暖中。这种变化与赤道太平洋的温跃层变平有关。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2009年第24期|511-514|共4页
  • 作者

    Sang-Wook Yeh; Jong-Seong Kug; Boris Dewitte; Min-Ho Kwon; Ben P. Kirtman; Fei-Fei Jin;

  • 作者单位

    Climate Change and Coastal Disaster Research Department, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, 426-744, Ansan, Korea;

    Climate Change and Coastal Disaster Research Department, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, 426-744, Ansan, Korea;

    Laboratoire d'Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, 14 avenue Edouard Belin, 31400, Toulouse, France;

    Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, 96822, Hawaii, USA;

    University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, Florida, 33149, USA;

    Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, 96822, Hawaii, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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