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Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age

机译：平均剩余寿命会随着人口老龄化而增加

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摘要

Increases in median ages, the most commonly used measure of population ageing(1,2), are rapid in today's wealthier countries(2,3), and population ageing is widely considered to be a significant challenge to the well-being of citizens there(4). Conventional measures of age count years since birth; however, as lives lengthen, we need to think of age also in terms of years left until death or in proportion to the expanding lifespan. Here we propose a new measure of ageing: the median age of the population standardized for expected remaining years of life. We show, using historical data and forecasts for Germany, Japan and the United States, that although these populations will be growing older, as measured by their median ages, they will probably experience periods in which they grow younger, as measured by their standardized median ages. Furthermore, we provide forecasts for these countries of the old-age dependency ratio rescaled for increases in life expectancy at birth(5). These ratios are forecasted to change much less than their unscaled counterparts, and also exhibit periods when the population is effectively growing younger.
机译：在当今较富裕的国家中，中位数年龄的增长是最常使用的人口老龄化衡量标准（1,2），[2,3]迅速增长，人们普遍认为人口老龄化是对该国公民福祉的重大挑战（4）。自出生以来的岁数的常规量度；但是，随着寿命的延长，我们还需要考虑到死亡的年限或寿命的延长来考虑年龄。在这里，我们提出了一种新的老龄化衡量标准：为预期的剩余寿命标准化的人口中位数年龄。根据对德国，日本和美国的历史数据和预测，我们显示，尽管按照中位数年龄衡量，这些人口的年龄会有所增长，但按标准中位数衡量，他们可能会经历更年轻的时期年龄。此外，我们提供了这些国家的预测，即随着出生时预期寿命的增加，对老年人抚养比进行了重新调整（5）。预测这些比率的变化将比未按比例变化的比率小得多，并且还显示出人口实际上正在年轻的时期。

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