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Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century

机译：二十一世纪北极海洋酸化的紧急约束

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摘要

Abstract The ongoing uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, a process that results in a reduction in pH and in the saturation state of biogenic calcium carbonate minerals aragonite (Ωarag) and calcite (Ωcalc)1,2. Because of its naturally low Ωarag and Ωcalc (refs. 2,3), the Arctic Ocean is considered the region most susceptible to future acidification and associated ecosystem impacts4–7. However, the magnitude of projected twenty-first century acidification differs strongly across Earth system models8. Here we identify an emergent multi-model relationship between the simulated present-day density of Arctic Ocean surface waters, used as a proxy for Arctic deep-water formation, and projections of the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification. By applying observations of sea surface density, we constrain the end of twenty-first century Arctic Ocean anthropogenic carbon inventory to 9.0 ± 1.6 petagrams of carbon and the basin-averaged Ωarag and Ωcalc to 0.76 ± 0.06 and 1.19 ± 0.09, respectively, under the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Our results indicate greater regional anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification than previously projected3,8 and increase the probability that large parts of the mesopelagic Arctic Ocean will be undersaturated with respect to calcite by the end of the century. This increased rate of Arctic Ocean acidification, combined with rapidly changing physical and biogeochemical Arctic conditions9–11, is likely to exacerbate the impact of climate change on vulnerable Arctic marine ecosystems.
机译：摘要海洋持续吸收海洋导致海洋酸化，导致pH的降低和生物碳酸钙矿物质和方解石（ωcALC）1,2的饱和状态下导致pH的过程和饱和状态。由于其自然低Ωarag和ωcalc（参考文献2,3），北极海洋被认为是最容易对未来酸化和相关生态系统影响的地区4-7。然而，预计的二十一世纪酸化的幅度在地球系统模型中的强烈不同。在这里，我们识别北极海景水的模拟当前密度之间的紧急多模型关系，用作北极深水形成的代理，以及人为碳库存和重合酸化的突起。通过施加海面密度的观察，我们将二十一世纪的北极海洋人为碳库存减少到9.0±1.6的碳和盆地平均ωarag和ωcalc分别为0.76±0.06和1.19±0.09，下方高排放代表浓度通路8.5气候情景。我们的结果表明，较大的区域性人为碳储存和海洋酸化比以前投射3,8，并增加了在本世纪末的方解石的脑内大部分大部分的大部分较大的可能性。这种增加的北极海洋酸化率加上迅速变化的物理和生物地球化学北极状况9-11，可能会加剧气候变化对脆弱的北极海洋生态系统的影响。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2020年第7812期|379-383|共5页
  • 作者

    Jens Terhaar; Lester Kwiatkowski; Laurent Bopp;

  • 作者单位

    LMD/IPSL Ecole Normale Supérieure/PSL Université CNRS Ecole Polytechnique Sorbonne Université Paris France|Climate and Environmental Physics Physics Institute University of Bern Bern Switzerland|Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland;

    LMD/IPSL Ecole Normale Supérieure/PSL Université CNRS Ecole Polytechnique Sorbonne Université Paris France|LOCEAN/IPSL Sorbonne Université CNRS IRD MNHN Paris France;

    LMD/IPSL Ecole Normale Supérieure/PSL Université CNRS Ecole Polytechnique Sorbonne Université Paris France;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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