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Who's counting: An analysis of beach attendance estimates and methodologies in southern California

机译：谁在数数：对南加州海滩游客人数估算和方法的分析

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摘要

Accurately assessing visitation patterns at California's beaches is critical; human use data is a primary input into beach assessments that inform staffing, amenities, beach nourishment and the loss of interim use following beach closures. If beach attendance estimates are inaccurate, then these assessments will be similarly inaccurate and could result in the misallocation of public resources to staff and manage coastal lands. This study assesses attendance estimates at selected beaches in Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties by comparing official agency estimates to study estimates informed by periodic counts and sub-sampling techniques. We conclude that official counts often seriously overestimate attendance, in some cases on average by a factor over 5, and that this bias is not random but correlated with a number of factors, including the relative daily attendance load, the size of the beach, and the methodologies employed to produce estimates. The methods agencies use to estimate attendance are often based on old algorithms from unavailable studies that are unsuitable for accurately measuring visitation patterns across user groups. While our results pose serious questions to the accuracy of beach attendance estimates in southern California, there are a number of tangible and economical measures that agencies can take to evaluate and improve their current beach attendance methodologies.
机译：准确评估加利福尼亚海滩的访问方式至关重要。人类使用数据是海滩评估的主要输入，可提供人员，设施，海滩营养以及海滩关闭后临时使用的损失。如果海滩出勤估计不准确，那么这些评估也将同样不准确，并可能导致公共资源分配给工作人员和管理沿海土地的错误分配。这项研究通过将官方机构估算值与定期计数和二次抽样技术提供的估算值进行比较，评估了圣塔芭芭拉，文图拉，洛杉矶，奥兰治和圣地亚哥县选定海滩的出勤估算。我们得出的结论是，官员人数经常会严重高估出勤率，在某些情况下，平均出勤率平均高出5倍，而且这种偏见不是随机的，而是与许多因素相关，包括相对的每日出勤负荷，海滩的大小和用于产生估计的方法。代理商用来估算出勤率的方法通常基于不可用研究中的旧算法，这些算法不适合准确地衡量整个用户组的访问模式。尽管我们的结果严重影响了加利福尼亚州南部海滩出勤率估计的准确性，但机构可以采取许多切实有效的措施来评估和改进其当前的海滩​​出勤方法。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean & coastal management》 |2012年第3期|p.17-25|共9页
  • 作者

    Philip King; Aaron McGregor;

  • 作者单位

    San Francisco State University, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco, CA 94132, United States;

    California Ocean Science Trust, Oakland, CA, United States;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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