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An introduction to Bayesian networks as assessment and decision support tools for managing coral reef ecosystem services

机译：贝叶斯网络简介，作为管理珊瑚礁生态系统服务的评估和决策支持工具

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摘要

Quantifying ecosystem goods and services can help evaluate policies aimed at protecting present and future generations from losing ecosystem benefits. Explicating and quantifying the relationships among risk factors, ecological structure and function, and delivery of ecosystem goods and services requires analytical methodologies that propagate uncertainties. The capabilities of Bayesian networks in generating predictions and accounting for uncertainty are explored with a focus on coral reef ecosystem service assessments. The qualitative aspects of Bayesian networks can be applied to conceptual frameworks developed for coral reef ecosystem service assessments. This is demonstrated using qualitative graphs that describe the relationships between coral reef condition endpoints and benefits from ecosystem services including property protection, recreational opportunities, fish for fisheries, and biochemical metabolites for commercial products developed from reef organisms. Bayesian networks help weigh uncertainties between management decision impacts on stressors and the corresponding delivery of ecosystem services. Quantitative capabilities for inferences are examined in hypothetical scenarios evaluating how decisions affect coral reef ecosystem services and economic benefits and resilience to episodic stress. The described methods facilitate visualizing the potential impacts on ecosystem services from alternative scenarios.
机译：量化生态系统产品和服务可以帮助评估旨在保护今世后代免受生态系统利益损失的政策。要阐明和量化风险因素，生态结构和功能以及生态系统产品和服务的提供之间的关系，就需要传播不确定性的分析方法。探索贝叶斯网络在生成预测和解释不确定性方面的能力，重点是珊瑚礁生态系统服务评估。贝叶斯网络的定性方面可以应用于为珊瑚礁生态系统服务评估而开发的概念框架。使用描述珊瑚礁状况终点与生态系统服务惠益之间的关系的定性图，可以证明这些关系，包括财产保护，娱乐机会，渔业鱼类以及由珊瑚礁生物开发的商业产品的生化代谢物。贝叶斯网络有助于权衡管理决策对压力源的影响和相应的生态系统服务交付之间的不确定性。在假设方案中评估了推理的定量能力，这些决策方案评估了决策如何影响珊瑚礁生态系统服务以及经济效益和对突发胁迫的适应力。所描述的方法有助于可视化替代方案对生态系统服务的潜在影响。

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