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An introduction to Bayesian networks as assessment and decision support tools for managing coral reef ecosystem services

机译：贝叶斯网络介绍作为管理珊瑚礁生态系统服务的评估和决策支持工具

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摘要

Quantifying ecosystem goods and services can help evaluate policies aimed at protecting present and future generations from losing ecosystem benefits. Explicating and quantifying the relationships among risk factors, ecological structure and function, and delivery of ecosystem goods and services requires analytical methodologies that propagate uncertainties. The capabilities of Bayesian networks in generating predictions and accounting for uncertainty are explored with a focus on coral reef ecosystem service assessments. The qualitative aspects of Bayesian networks can be applied to conceptual frameworks developed for coral reef ecosystem service assessments. This is demonstrated using qualitative graphs that describe the relationships between coral reef condition endpoints and benefits from ecosystem services including property protection, recreational opportunities, fish for fisheries, and biochemical metabolites for commercial products developed from reef organisms. Bayesian networks help weigh uncertainties between management decision impacts on stressors and the corresponding delivery of ecosystem services. Quantitative capabilities for inferences are examined in hypothetical scenarios evaluating how decisions affect coral reef ecosystem services and economic benefits and resilience to episodic stress. The described methods facilitate visualizing the potential impacts on ecosystem services from alternative scenarios.
机译：量化生态系统商品和服务可以帮助评估旨在保护当代和后代的政策失去生态系统效益。阐述和量化风险因素，生态结构和功能之间的关系，以及生态系统商品和服务的交付需要分析方法传播不确定性。探讨了贝叶斯网络在产生预测和核算不确定性的情况下的能力，专注于珊瑚礁生态系统服务评估。贝叶斯网络的定性方面可以应用于为珊瑚礁生态系统服务评估开发的概念框架。这是使用描述珊瑚礁条件终点和生态系统服务之间的关系的定性图来证明，包括物业保护，娱乐机会，用于渔业的鱼类以及从珊瑚礁生物发展的商业产品的生化代谢物。贝叶斯网络有助于管理决策对压力源的影响与生态系统服务的相应交付之间的不确定性。在假设情景中检查了推论的定量能力，评估决策如何影响珊瑚礁生态系统服务和经济益处，并抵御情节压力。所描述的方法有助于从替代方案可视化对生态系统服务的潜在影响。

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