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The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

机译：转型中的瓦登海-海平面上升的后果

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摘要

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Romobight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Romobight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.
机译：通过广泛的过程解析数值模拟，研究了海平面上升（SLR）对瓦登海（北海）未来形态发展的影响。在完善的3D循环模型GETM中实施了新的沉积物和形态动力学模块。提出了许多不同的验证方法，从半理想化的2D瓦登海盆地上的理想1D通道到完全耦合的现实40年后铸，而没有形态学放大的瓦登海的半封闭子系统Sylt-Romobight 。基于后验的结果，模拟了涵盖2010-2100年的四个不同的未来方案。虽然这些情况在单反和风力的强度上有所不同，但它们也说明了未来一个世纪潮汐范围的预期增加。未来预测的结果表明，将从潮滩为主的系统向泻湖状系统过渡，在该系统中，叙尔特-罗莫比特河的大部分仍将永久被水覆盖。这对瓦登海独特的生态系统具有潜在的巨大影响。尽管模拟还预测了后屏障盆地中沉积物的积累将增加，但是这种积累太弱了，无法补偿平均海平面的上升。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Dynamics》 |2018年第1期|131-151|共21页
  • 作者

    Becherer Johannes; Hofstede Jacobus; Graewe Ulf; Purkiani Kaveh; Schulz Elisabeth; Burchard Hans;

  • 作者单位

    Oregon State Univ, CEOAS, 104 CEOAS Adm Bldg, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA;

    Schleswig Holstein Minist Energy Transit Agr Envi, Div Flood Def Coastal Protect & Harbors, Mercatorstr 3, D-24106 Kiel, Germany;

    Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde IOW, Seestr 15, D-18119 Rostock, Germany;

    MARUM, Ctr Marine Environm Sci, Leobener Str 8, D-28359 Bremen, Germany;

    Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde IOW, Seestr 15, D-18119 Rostock, Germany;

    Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde IOW, Seestr 15, D-18119 Rostock, Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Sea level rise; Morphodynamic simulation; Wadden Sea;

    机译：海平面上升形态动力学模拟瓦登海;

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