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首页> 外文期刊>Oceanographic Literature Review >The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Nino in Climate Models
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The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Nino in Climate Models

机译：在不同季节在不同季节的作用与海洋热量充值在气候模型中极端El Nino的发展

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摘要

The mechanisms and predictability of extreme El Nino events, as in 1982,1997, and 2015, remain unclear. Here we investigate the relative roles of the ocean initial heat recharge and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur during different seasons in the generation of extreme El Nino events in a climate model (CESM1.2). Several sets of 100-member ensemble simulations, along with CMIP5 and atmospheric reanalysis data, are used. We show that while the probability of extreme El Nino increases progressively with ocean heat recharge, tropical conditions by year-end are least predictable (the largest ensemble spread) for moderately-to-strongly recharged ocean initial states, rather than neutrally charged. Even after strong early-year WWBs and recharged ocean the occurrence of extreme El Nino has limited predictability. While the early-year WWBs are still important for strong El Nino, it is to a lesser extent than suggested previously, as mid-year WWBs play a critical role in El Nino progression.
机译：Extreme El Nino事件的机制和可预测性，如1982,1997和2015年，仍然尚不清楚。在这里，我们研究了在气候模型（CESM1.2）中产生的极端EL NINO事件中发生的不同季节发生的海洋初始热量充电和西风风爆（WWB）的相对角色。使用几组100构件仿真以及CMIP5和大气再分析数据。我们展示，虽然极端埃尔尼诺的概率随海洋热充电而逐步增加，逐年末端的热带条件最不可预测（最大的集成差价），适用于中等强度充电的海洋初始状态，而不是中立充电。即使经过强劲的早期WWB和充电海洋，Extreme El Nino的发生是有限的可预测性。虽然早期的WWB仍然很重要，但在较鲜明的程度上，比以前所建议的程度较小，因为中年WWB在El Nino进展中发挥着关键作用。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2020年第10期|2108-2109|共2页
  • 作者

    S. Yu; A. V. Fedorov;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Yale University New Haven CT United States;

    Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Yale University New Haven CT United States;

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