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Planning for the Impacts of Sea Level Rise

机译：规划海平面上升的影响

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Coastal areas constitute important habitats, and they contain a large and growing population, much of it located in economic centers such as London, New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai, and Lagos. The range of coastal hazards includes climate-induced sea level rise, a long-term threat that demands broad response. Global sea levels rose 17 cm through the twentieth century, and are likely to rise more rapidly through the twenty-first century when a rise of more than 1 m is possible. In some locations, these changes may be exacerbated by (1) increases in storminess due to climate change, although this scenario is less certain, and (2) widespread human-induced subsidence due to ground fluid withdrawal from, and drainage of, susceptible soils, especially in deltas. Relative sea level rise has a range of potential impacts, including higher extreme sea levels (and flooding), coastal erosion, salinization of surface and ground waters, and degradation of coastal habitats such as wetlands. Without adaptation, large land areas and millions of people could be displaced by sea level rise. Appropriate responses include climate mitigation (a global response) and/ or adaptation (a local response). A combination of these strategies appears to be the most appropriate approach to sea level rise regardless of the uncertainty. Adaptation responses can be characterized as (1) protect, (2) accommodate, or (3) retreat. While these adaptation responses could reduce impacts significantly, they will need to be consistent with responses to all coastal hazards, as well as with wider societal and development objectives; hence, an integrated coastal management philosophy is required. In some developed countries, including England and the Netherlands, proactive adaptation plans are already being formulated. Coastal cities worldwide will be a major focus for adaptation efforts because of their concentrations of people and assets. Developing countries will pose adaptation challenges, especially in deltaic areas and small islands, which are the most vulnerable settings.
机译：沿海地区是重要的栖息地，人口众多且在不断增长，其中大部分位于伦敦，纽约，东京，上海，孟买和拉各斯等经济中心。沿海危害的范围包括气候引起的海平面上升，这是需要广泛应对的长期威胁。整个二十世纪，全球海平面上升了17厘米，到二十一世纪，可能上升超过1 m时，全球海平面可能会以更快的速度上升。在某些地区，这些变化可能由于（1）气候变化导致的暴风雨增加而加剧，尽管这种情况尚不确定，并且（2）由于地面流体从易感土壤中抽出和排水而导致的人为沉降。 ，尤其是在三角洲。相对海平面上升具有一系列潜在影响，包括更高的极端海平面（和洪水），沿海侵蚀，地表水和地下水盐渍化以及沿海生境（如湿地）的退化。如果不进行适应，由于海平面上升，大片土地和数百万人可能流离失所。适当的应对措施包括缓解气候变化（全球应对措施）和/或适应气候变化（本地应对措施）。无论不确定性如何，这些策略的组合似乎都是应对海平面上升的最合适方法。适应反应的特征可以是（1）保护，（2）适应或（3）退缩。尽管这些适应对策可以大大减少影响，但它们必须与对所有沿海灾害的对策以及更广泛的社会和发展目标相一致；因此，需要综合的沿海管理理念。在包括英国和荷兰在内的一些发达国家，已经制定了积极的适应计划。由于全世界沿海城市的人口和财产集中，它们将成为适应工作的主要重点。发展中国家将带来适应挑战，特别是在最脆弱的地区三角洲和小岛。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanography》 |2011年第2期|p.144-157|共14页
  • 作者

    ROBERT J. NICHOLLS;

  • 作者单位

    School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK;

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