In 2016, oil demand growth is projected to slow slightly to 1.1% y-o-y, taking total demand to 94.7m bpd, as the flattening out of the oil price eases the demand stimulus. Japanese oil demand is currently expected to decline by 4% y-o-y to 4.0m bpd in 2016, as the Japanese petrochemical sector contracts further, with a number of crackers reportedly scheduled for closure in 2016. Furthermore, oil demand from the power generation sector is also reportedly under pressure, as some nuclear reactors begin to restart and power companies shift from oil to other energy sources such as gas and renewables. Conversely, Indian oil demand is projected to expand by 6% in 2016 to 4.2m bpd, supported by increased petrochemical capacity and further growth in vehicle usage, which was a key driver of greater oil demand in 2015 as gasoline and naphtha consumption surged. Overall, total non-OECD Asian oil demand is projected to grow by 3% y-o-y to 24.1m bpd, equivalent to 25% of global oil demand, compared to approximately 20% in 2009. Elsewhere, OECD European oil demand is projected to remain steady in 2016 at 13.8m bpd due to the expected reduction of any demand stimulus from low oil prices, which was a key driver of OECD oil demand growth in 2015.
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