In 2014, global oil supply is estimated to have grown 1.5% y-o-y, with further y-o-y growth of 1.6% expected in 2015. As in recent years, much of the increase in supply this year is forecast to be driven by the US, where increased tight oil production is forecast to contribute to the 0.9m bpd of additional supply, representing growth of 7.7% on 2014 production. Despite the current low oil price, cost savings and streamlining within the unconventional hydrocarbon industry has allowed for continued growth in production from the sector, further compounding the global supply/demand imbalance. Elsewhere in North America, growth in Canadian oil production is likely to be hampered by low oil prices, with growth expected to reach 3.5% y-o-y in 2015, much of which is likely to come from tar sands reserves. Moderate growth in oil supply from countries such as Iran and Iraq is forecast to further boost global growth in oil production during 2015, with projected increases of 2.4% and 4.7% respectively. Expectations that Iranian sanctions are to be eased in 2015 is expected to support higher Iranian oil production, whilst increased stability in Iraq, combined with export agreements between the central government and the KRG, should enable increased Iraqi production.
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