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Finance and growth in oil-dependent economies: does crude oil price matter? evidence from Nigeria

机译：石油依赖经济体的金融和增长：原油价格重要吗？来自尼日利亚的证据

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摘要

This study examines three possible causal relationships between financial sector development, economic growth and crude oil price in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis over the period 1981 to 2011. First, the causal effect of financial sector development on economic growth is found to be negatively insignificant in the long-run and negatively significant in the short-run suggesting the weakness of financial intermediary sector in resource mobilisation and allocation in Nigeria. Crude oil price is found to be the key driver of economic growth in Nigeria. Second, the causal effect of economic growth on financial sector development is as well found to be negatively insignificant in the long-run and negatively significant in the short-run. Third, the causal effect of crude oil price on financial sector development is found to be positive and significant in the long-run, suggesting that crude oil price is the underlying factor that determines the amount of economic activities passing through the Nigerian financial sector. The results highlight the need for a well-articulated policy framework that will lessen the high dependence of the Nigerian economy on crude oil.
机译：这项研究使用自回归分布式滞后（ARDL）方法进行了1981年至2011年期间的协整分析，研究了尼日利亚金融业发展，经济增长和原油价格之间的三种可能的因果关系。首先，金融业发展对经济的因果关系从长期来看，增长没有负面影响，从短期来看却没有显着影响，这表明金融中介部门在尼日利亚的资源动员和分配方面薄弱。原油价格被发现是尼日利亚经济增长的主要驱动力。第二，长期来看，经济增长对金融部门发展的因果关系没有负面影响，而短期而言却有负面影响。第三，从长期来看，发现原油价格对金融业发展的因果关系是积极的和显着的，这表明原油价格是决定通过尼日利亚金融业的经济活动量的根本因素。结果表明，需要一个明确的政策框架，以减轻尼日利亚经济对原油的高度依赖。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2016年第4期|354-373|共20页
  • 作者

    Chinazaekpere Nwani;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics, Banking and Finance, Gregory University Uturu, P.M.B. 1012, Uturu, Abia State, Nigeria;

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