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On the role of the trend and cyclical components in electricity consumption and India's economic growth: a cointegration and cofeature approach

机译：关于趋势和周期性因素在电力消耗和印度经济增长中的作用：协整和合作方法

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摘要

In this paper, the relationship between electricity consumption (LEC) and economic growth (LGDP) using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality within error correction framework in India over the period 1970-1971 to 2009-2010 are analysed. The results of these tests exhibit the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bilateral causality in case of India. Then, Hodrick-Prescott filter is used to decompose the data into trend and cyclical (fluctuation) components of electricity consumption and economic growth. The results of decomposed series revealed that both series are cointegrated with the strong evidence of bidirectional causality, implying that trend and cyclical components are strongly correlated with business cycles in India. From these findings, we conclude that the feedback hypothesis is applicable in case of India. Therefore, government should undertake necessary policy measures to augment the investment in power sector from existing level and more importantly the emphasis should also be given on the efficient use of electricity.
机译：本文利用误差校正框架内的自回归分布式滞后（ARDL）模型和Granger因果关系，分析了1970-1971年至2009-2010年间的电力消耗（LEC）与经济增长（LGDP）之间的关系。这些测试的结果表明，在印度的情况下，存在长期均衡关系和双边因果关系。然后，使用Hodrick-Prescott滤波器将数据分解为电力消耗和经济增长的趋势和周期性（波动）成分。分解系列的结果表明，两个系列都与双向因果关系紧密相关，这表明趋势和周期性成分与印度的商业周期密切相关。根据这些发现，我们得出结论，反馈假设适用于印度。因此，政府应采取必要的政策措施，从现有水平增加对电力部门的投资，更重要的是，还应强调有效利用电力。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2014年第1期|107-126|共20页
  • 作者

    Wasim Ahmad; Md Zulquar Nain; Bandi Kamaiah;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Finance, College of Business Administration (CBA), Salman bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj-11942, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA),Department of Financial Studies, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India;

    School of Economics, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India;

    School of Economics, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India;

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