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Several Eyes for an Eye: The Impact of Biased Perceptions and Noise on Conflict Escalation Patterns

机译：几只眼睛：偏见和噪声对冲突升级模式的影响

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摘要

Although the importance of various psychological factors to the study of conflict has been well-established, little attention has been directed at the impact of perceptual biases on conflict development. From psychophysics, we know that the relation between the intensity of physical stimuli and the perceived intensity of those stimuli is not simple and depends on the specific kind of stimulus. This work generalizes this finding by considering aggressive acts by parties in a conflict as the stimuli under consideration and also prompting to the joint impact of biased perception and noise. It uses computer simulations to model the possible impact of differential perception of the intensity of aggressive acts in the context of iterated eye-for-eye conflicts. In these kinds of conflicts, each party tries to inflict upon the opponent the same intensity she or he received. The simulations show that biased perceptions of physical aggression can be a determinant of conflict escalation, and that biases inherent in the perceptual stage may drive repeated conflicts toward stabilization, escalation, or attenuation. The discussion proposes that policymakers avoid actions that, because of perceptual and other biases, have the potential to cause conflicts to deteriorate beyond the intentions of the involved parties.
机译：尽管人们已经充分认识到各种心理因素对研究冲突的重要性，但很少有注意力放在知觉偏见对冲突发展的影响上。从心理物理学中，我们知道物理刺激强度与这些刺激的感知强度之间的关系并不简单，并且取决于特定类型的刺激。这项工作通过将冲突中各方的侵略行为视为正在考虑的刺激因素，并促使偏见和噪音产生联合影响，从而概括了这一发现。它使用计算机仿真来模拟在反复的眼对眼冲突情况下对攻击行为强度的差异感知可能产生的影响。在这类冲突中，各方都试图向对手施加相同的强度。仿真表明，对物理攻击的偏见可能是冲突升级的决定因素，而感知阶段固有的偏见可能会导致反复的冲突朝着稳定，升级或衰减的方向发展。讨论建议，决策者应避免由于感知和其他偏见而可能导致冲突恶化的行动，超出有关各方的意图。

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  • 来源
    《Peace and conflict》 |2011年第1期|p.77-84|共8页
  • 作者

    Ilan Fischer;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Psychology, University of Haifa, Mount Carmel, Haifa 31905, Israel;

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