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Internal consistency of demographic assumptions in the shared socioeconomic pathways

机译：共同的社会经济途径中人口假设的内部一致性

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摘要

A new set of alternative socioeconomic scenarios for climate change researches-the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)-includes for the first time a more comprehensive set of demographic conditions on population, urbanization, and education as the central scenario elements, along with other aspects of society, in order to facilitate better analyses of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, it also raises a new question about the internal consistency of assumptions on different demographic and economic trends under each SSP. This paper examines whether the interactions between the demographic and economic factors implied by the assumptions in the SSP projections are consistent with the research literature, and whether they are consistently represented in the projection results. Our analysis shows that the interactions implied by the demographic assumptions in the SSPs are generally consistent with findings from the literature, and the majority of the assumed relationships are also evident in the projected trends. It also reveals some inconsistency issues, resulting mainly from the use of inconsistent definitions of regions and limitations in our understanding of future changes in the patterns of interactions at different stages of socioeconomic development. Finally, we offer recommendations on how to improve demographic assumptions in the extended SSPs, and how to use the projections of SSP central elements in climate change research.
机译：用于气候变化研究的一组新的替代性社会经济情景-共享的社会经济路径（SSP）-首次包括以人口，城市化和教育为中心情景要素的更全面的人口统计条件集，以及为了更好地分析缓解和适应气候变化的挑战。但是，这也提出了一个新的问题，即每个SSP下对不同人口和经济趋势的假设的内部一致性。本文研究了SSP预测中的假设所隐含的人口因素和经济因素之间的相互作用是否与研究文献一致，以及它们是否在预测结果中得到了一致的体现。我们的分析表明，SSP中人口假设所隐含的相互作用通常与文献中的发现一致，并且大多数假定关系在预测趋势中也很明显。它还揭示了一些不一致的问题，这主要是由于使用不一致的区域定义和我们对社会经济发展不同阶段的相互作用方式的未来变化的理解存在局限性所致。最后，我们提供了有关如何在扩展的SSP中改善人口假设的建议，以及如何在气候变化研究中使用SSP中心要素的预测。

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