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Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

机译：综合建模框架中共享的社会经济途径的水部门假设

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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; therefore, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This study has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs and then applied the resulting scenarios to an integrated assessment model to permit analysis of future water demand in a water-constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water-efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario-by-scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3,560 to 6,600 km(3). The results show that (1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios, (2) the most sustainable scenario produces end-of-century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values, (3) low-income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly-efficient water technologies, and (4) nonwater sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.
机译：共享社会经济途径（SSP）的开发没有对水行业的未来做出明确假设。因此，基于SSP对未来水需求的预测通常缺乏对与SSP故事情节相一致的水技术假设的处理。这项研究为SSP中的农业，电力，制造业和市政部门中的未来水部门技术进步制定了一套定性和定量假设，然后将所得的方案应用到综合评估模型中，从而可以分析未来水需求。一个缺水的世界。然后将这些方案与不采用节水技术的另一组方案进行比较。分析各个SSP假设类别的需水影响，以确定逐个情景的变化。到2100年，全球年度需水量从3560到6600 km（3）。结果表明：（1）在SSP情景中，水行业的技术变革可以在2100年的缺水世界中减少高达32％的用水需求；（2）最可持续的情景是产生世纪末的水取水量低于2010年的水平，（3）低收入地区可能是未来用水需求的最大驱动力之一，并且对高效水技术表现出最大的敏感性，并且（4）非水部门SSP假设的影响显着而不同根据SSP情景中的需求来改变全球水需求。

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