The panel had 150 years of collective industry experience. But the rapt audience of about 300 couldn't have liked what it heard. "Everyone is waiting for the market to pick up," said Com-peq Chairman Charles Wu, "but there is no chance." "About one-third of PCB makers will go bankrupt," predicted analyst Dr. Hayao Nakahara. "There will be a massive shakeout in the U.S.," added analyst Walt Custer. "Anyone with a lot of debt won't last long." And yet, for all the shutdowns (and talk of more), it's been a zero-sum gain, Dr. Nakahara said: Plants taken offline elsewhere are replaced by new ones in the PRC. Noting China boasts the second largest Internet market and is the largest consumer of cell phones, panelist Hans Friedrichkeit pointed out that fabricators are going to China not by choice, but because "it's the will of the customers."
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