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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest
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Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest

机译：西南地区的水，气候变化与可持续性

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The current Southwest drought is exceptional for its high temperatures and arguably the most severe in history. Coincidentally, there has been an increase in forest and woodland mortality due to fires and pathogenic outbreaks. Although the high temperatures and aridity are consistent with projected impacts of greenhouse warming, it is unclear whether the drought can be attributed to increased greenhouse gasses or is a product of natural climatic variability. Climate models indicate that the 21st century will be increasingly arid and droughts wore severe and prolonged. Forest and woodland mortality due to fires and pathogens will increase. Demography and food security dictate that water demand in the Southwest will remain appreciable. If projected population growth is twinned with suburb-centered development, domestic demands will intensify. Meeting domestic demands through transference from agriculture presents concerns for rural sustainability and food security. Environmental concerns will limit additional transference from rivers. It is unlikely that traditional supply-side solutions such as more dams will securely meet demands at current per-capita levels. Significant savings in domestic usage can be realized through decreased applications of potable water to landscaping, but this is a small fraction of total regional water use, which is dominated by agriculture. Technical innovations, policy measures, and market-based solutions that increase supply and decrease water demand are all needed. Meeting 21st-century sustainability challenges in the Southwest will also require planning, cooperation, and integration that surpass 20th-century efforts in terms of geographic scope, jurisdictional breadth, multisectoral engagement, and the length of planning timelines.
机译：当前的西南干旱因高温而异常，可以说是历史上最严重的干旱。巧合的是，由于火灾和致病性暴发，森林和林地的死亡率增加了。尽管高温和干旱与温室效应的预计影响相一致，但尚不清楚干旱是否可归因于温室气体的增加或自然气候变化的产物。气候模型表明，二十一世纪将越来越干旱，干旱将持续很长时间。由火灾和病原体引起的森林和林地死亡率将增加。人口统计学和粮食安全表明，西南地区的用水需求将保持可观的水平。如果预计的人口增长与以郊区为中心的发展成对，则国内需求将会加剧。通过农业转移满足国内需求提出了对农村可持续性和粮食安全的关注。对环境的关注将限制从河流的额外转移。传统的供应方解决方案（例如更多的水坝）不可能可靠地满足当前人均水平的需求。可以通过减少在景观美化环境中使用饮用水来实现家庭使用的显着节省，但这仅占区域总用水量的一小部分，而农业用水占主导地位。都需要增加供应和减少水需求的技术创新，政策措施和基于市场的解决方案。应对西南地区21世纪可持续发展的挑战，还需要进行规划，合作和整合，在地理范围，管辖范围，多部门参与以及规划时限等方面要超过20世纪的努力。

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