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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Global Temperature Responses To Current Emissions From The Transport Sectors
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Global Temperature Responses To Current Emissions From The Transport Sectors

机译：全球温度对运输部门当前排放的响应

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摘要

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that cause both warming and cooling of climate, and the effects operate on very different timescales. We calculate climate responses in terms of global mean temperature and find large differences between the transport sectors with respect to the size and mix of short- and long-lived effects, and even the sign of the temperature response. For year 2000 emissions, road transport has the largest effect on global mean temperature. After 20 and 100 years the response in net temperature is 7 and 6 times higher, respectively, than for aviation. Aviation and shipping have strong but quite uncertain short-lived warming and cooling effects, respectively, that dominate during the first decades after the emissions. For shipping the net cooling during the first 4 decades is due to emissions of SO_2 and NOx. On a longer timescale, the current emissions from shipping cause net warming due to the persistence of the CO_2 perturbation. If emissions stay constant at 2000 levels, the warming effect from road transport will continue to increase and will be almost 4 times larger than that of aviation by the end of the century.
机译：运输通过导致气候变暖和变冷的机制直接或间接影响气候，其影响作用在非常不同的时间范围内。我们根据全球平均温度来计算气候响应，并发现运输部门之间的短期和长期影响的大小和混合，甚至温度响应的迹象存在很大差异。对于2000年的排放，公路运输对全球平均温度的影响最大。 20年和100年后，净温度的响应分别比航空高7倍和6倍。航空和航运分别具有强烈但不确定的短期变暖和降温效果，在排放后的头几十年中占主导地位。对于运输而言，前40年的净冷却是由于SO_2和NOx的排放。在较长的时间范围内，由于CO_2扰动的持续存在，航运业目前的排放导致净变暖。如果排放量保持在2000年的恒定水平，那么到本世纪末，公路运输的变暖效应将继续增加，几乎是航空业的4倍。

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