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首页> 外文期刊>The quarterly review of economics and finance >Growth, deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries
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Growth, deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

机译：增长，赤字和不确定性：27个国家组成的小组的理论方面和经验证据

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摘要

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.
机译：我们在一个由27个欧洲国家组成的小组中研究了财政赤字与人均收入增长之间的关系，考虑了在财政可持续性方面与政府额外支出相关的感知风险。制造业生产和股票市场收益的条件可变性，以及两个基于调查的经济情绪指标的无条件可变性，都为此类风险提供了保障。为了帮助阐明财政变量如何影响增长并为解释经验结果提供参考，首先确定了结构性增长模型。我们发现了一种不对称关系的证据，即如果财政赤字与经济前景的高度不确定性相吻合，则对财政赤字会产生不利的增长影响，而在不确定性较低的情况下，则不会出现显着的负增长影响。

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