• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems
【24h】

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

机译：共享的社会经济途径扩展至波罗的海：探索长期环境问题

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.
机译：长期情景分析可以成为探索不断变化的环境，社会和经济条件下人类发展的合理未来，并评估减少污染和资源过度使用的不同方法的影响的有力工具。脆弱的生态系统（如东北欧的波罗的海）往往受到多重，相互影响的人为驱动因素的压力，这既与当地规模（例如土地使用变化）又与全球规模（例如气候变化）有关。当前，缺乏支持政策制定的方案，无法系统地探讨全球和区域发展如何同时影响波罗的海地区。在这里，我们提出了五项关于波罗的海地区未来发展的叙述，这与针对气候研究制定的全球共享社会经济途径（SSP）一致。我们专注于农业，废水处理，渔业，航运和大气沉积，这些都对波罗的海构成了巨大压力。尽管我们发现全球路径与区域压力之间存在密切的联系，但我们也得出结论，每种路径很可能是不同部门发展的宿主，而这反过来可能对生态系统状态产生不同的影响。波罗的海地区扩展的SSP叙述旨在描述区域规模的部门发展，从而可以在一个共同的背景下进行跨不同部门和学科的详细情景分析和讨论。此外，扩展的SSP可以很容易地与气候路径结合起来，对区域环境问题进行综合情景分析。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号