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Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

机译：为波罗的海共享社会经济途径：探索长期的环境问题

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摘要

Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.
机译：长期情景分析可能是在不断变化的环境，社会和经济条件下探讨人类发展的合理期货的强大工具，并评估不同方法以减少污染和资源过度使用的影响。像东北欧洲的波罗的海这样的脆弱的生态系统往往受到多重的压力，与当地规模（例如土地利用变化）和全球范围（例如气候变化）相关的互动的人为司机。目前缺乏支持政策的情景，系统地探索全球和区域发展如何影响波罗的海地区。在这里，我们为波罗的海地区的未来发展提供了五个叙事，与为气候研究制定的全球共享社会经济途径（SSP）一致。我们专注于农业，废水处理，渔业，运输和大气沉积，这一切都代表了波罗的海的主要压力。虽然我们在全球途径和区域压力之间找到了强有力的联系，但我们也得出结论，每个途径可能很好地是不同部门发展的宿主，这反过来可能对生态系统状态产生不同的影响。波罗的海地区的扩展SSP叙述旨在描述区域规模的部门发展，使不同部门和学科的详细情景分析和讨论能够，但在一个共同的背景下。此外，延长的SSP可以随心所欲地与气候途径相结合，以实现区域环境问题的综合情景分析。

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