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Assessing the economy-wide effects of climate change adaptation options of land transport systems in Austria

机译：评估奥地利陆地运输系统的气候变化适应方案对整个经济的影响

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Due to climate change, transport systems are expected to become increasingly stressed by extreme weather and gradual climatic changes, resulting in direct costs within the affected sectors as well as indirect costs from sectoral interlinkages. To reduce these costs, sector-specific climate change adaptation measures are needed, raising the question of the net benefits of adaptation at a macroeconomic level. However, despite their importance such assessments of impacts and adaptation at the macrolevel are scarce and coarse in their implementation. This paper contributes to fill this research gap by analyzing specific adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors in Austria using a computable general equilibrium model. The findings are as follows: First, direct impact costs more than double due to macroeconomic linkages. Hence, the indirect costs are found to be larger than the direct costs. Second, when analyzing adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors, without capturing any indirect effects, benefit-cost ratios imply a clear benefit only for the rail sector. However, when indirect effects via sectoral interlinkages are also captured, adaptation measures in both sectors, road and rail, clearly pay off. Climate change-induced GDP and welfare losses are reduced by 55 and 34% and lead to positive employment effects. Third, even at rather low damage reduction potentials, adaptation leads to a net benefit at the macroeconomic level.
机译：由于气候变化，预计极端天气和逐渐的气候变化将给运输系统带来越来越大的压力，从而导致受影响部门的直接成本以及部门相互联系的间接成本。为了降低这些成本，需要针对特定​​部门的气候变化适应措施，从而提出了在宏观经济层面上适应的净收益的问题。然而，尽管它们具有重要意义，但对这种影响和适应性的宏观评估在执行过程中却很少而且很粗糙。本文通过使用可计算的一般均衡模型分析奥地利道路和铁路部门的具体适应措施，为填补这一研究空白做出了贡献。研究结果如下：首先，由于宏观经济联系，直接影响成本增加了一倍以上。因此，发现间接成本大于直接成本。其次，在分析公路和铁路部门的适应措施时，如果没有捕捉到任何间接影响，收益成本比就意味着仅对铁路部门带来了明显的收益。但是，当还通过部门相互联系获得间接影响时，公路和铁路两个部门的适应措施显然都会奏效。由气候变化引起的GDP和福利损失分别减少了55％和34％，并带来了积极的就业影响。第三，即使在减少损害的可能性很低的情况下，适应也可以在宏观经济水平上带来净收益。

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