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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Regional adaptation of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) to drought in Central European conditions considering environmental suitability and economic implications
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Regional adaptation of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) to drought in Central European conditions considering environmental suitability and economic implications

机译：欧洲山毛榉（Fagus Sylvatica）区域适应中欧欧洲条件的干旱考虑环境适宜性和经济影响

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摘要

European beech (Fagus sylvatica) is a widespread deciduous tree in Europe, but may face significant distribution shifts due to expected increasing drought frequency under climate change. An alternative adaptation strategy for beech forests to improve drought tolerance and economic outcome consists in the admixtion of silver fir (Abies alba). To explore potentially suitable areas for mixing under future climate conditions, species distribution models (SDMs) represent a useful tool, but should be accompanied by economic analyses and uncertainty evaluations to serve as a solid decision basis for forest management. Therefore, in this study, we apply state-of-the-art SDMs, review uncertainties resulting from different modeling approaches, estimate the economic value of pure and mixed beech and fir stands, and discuss managerial implications of the results in Germany. Our model results projected widespread beech declines for Germany, while silver fir distributions remained largely constant. The degree of decline varied significantly between the investigated climate scenarios and resulted in associated economic losses between -180 and-4000 billion euros. With regard to the uncertain magnitude of climate change and the risk of high economic losses, we recommend an adaptation of beech forests in its projected hot spots of decline and find silver fir to be an environmentally suitable mixing species. The combination of ecological, economic, and uncertainty analyses used here represents a promising set of tools to evaluate climate change effects and assist in the regional adaptation of forests.
机译：欧洲山毛榉（Fagus Sylvatica）是欧洲普遍的落叶树，但由于在气候变化下预期的干旱频率增加，可能面临着显着的分布班。山毛榉森林改善干旱耐受性和经济结果的替代适应策略在于银杉（Abies Alba）的共同之处。为了探索在未来的气候条件下混合的潜在合适的区域，物种分配模型（SDMS）代表了一个有用的工具，但应伴随经济分析和不确定性评估，作为森林管理的坚实决策基础。因此，在本研究中，我们应用最先进的SDM，审查由不同建模方法产生的不确定性，估计纯粹和混合山毛榉和冷杉的经济价值，并讨论德国结果的管理含义。我们的型号结果预计德国广泛的Beech Depline，而Silver FIR分布仍然很常态。在调查的气候情景之间的下降程度显着变化，导致与-180和4000亿欧元之间的相关经济损失。关于气候变化不确定和高经济损失的风险，我们建议将山毛榉森林的适应调整在其预计的衰退中，并找到银色灭菌，以成为环保的混合物种。这里使用的生态，经济和不确定性分析的组合代表了一套有前途的工具，以评估气候变化效应并协助区域适应森林。

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