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Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Israel: an expert assessment approach

机译：气候变化对以色列生物多样性的影响：专家评估方法

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The Mediterranean region is both a global biodiversity hot spot and one of the biomes most strongly affected by human activities. Ecologists and land managers are increasingly required to advise on threats to biodiversity under foreseeable climate change. We used expert surveys to evaluate current understanding and uncertainties regarding climate change impacts on biodiversity in terrestrial, inland freshwater, and marine ecosystems of Israel. Finally, we propose a response strategy toward minimizing these changes. The surveys and the published literature indicated that the main climate change impacts in Israel include ongoing deterioration of freshwater habitats, decline of shrubland and woodland areas, and increased frequency and severity of forest fires. For the Mediterranean Sea, the surveys predict further introduction and establishment of invasive species from the Red Sea, accelerated erosion of coastal rocky habitat, and collapse of coastal rocky platforms. In the Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea, corals may be resilient to foreseen climate change due to their high tolerance for rising water temperatures. Despite these predictions, science-based knowledge regarding the contribution of management toward minimizing climate change impacts on biodiversity is still lacking. Habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation are presently the primary and immediate threats to natural ecosystems in Israel. Protection of natural ecosystems, including local refugia, must be intensified to maintain existing biodiversity under pressure from mounting urban development and climate change. This protection policy should include ecological corridors to minimize the consequences of fragmentation of existing natural habitats for species survival. A longer-term strategy should mandate connectivity across environmental and climatic gradients to maintain natural resilience by allowing reorganization of natural ecosystems facing climate change.
机译：地中海地区既是全球生物多样性热点，也是受人类活动影响最大的生物群落之一。越来越多地要求生态学家和土地管理者就可预见的气候变化对生物多样性的威胁提出建议。我们使用专家调查来评估当前对气候变化对以色列陆地，内陆淡水和海洋生态系统中生物多样性的影响的理解和不确定性。最后，我们提出了一种将这些变化降至最低的应对策略。调查和已发表的文献表明，以色列对气候变化的主要影响包括淡水生境的持续恶化，灌木丛和林地面积的减少以及森林火灾的频率和严重性增加。对于地中海，调查预测将进一步引入和建立来自红海的入侵物种，加速侵蚀沿海岩石栖息地，并破坏沿海岩石平台。在红海亚喀巴湾，珊瑚由于对水温上升的高度耐受性，因此可以抵抗可预见的气候变化。尽管有这些预测，但仍缺乏有关管理在最大限度地减少气候变化对生物多样性的影响方面的基于科学的知识。生境的丧失，退化和破碎目前是以色列自然生态系统的主要和直接威胁。必须加强对包括地方避难所在内的自然生态系统的保护，以在日益加剧的城市发展和气候变化的压力下维持现有的生物多样性。该保护政策应包括生态走廊，以最大程度地减少现有自然栖息地的破碎化对物种生存的影响。一项较长期的战略应要求在环境和气候梯度之间建立连通性，以通过允许面对气候变化的自然生态系统的重组来保持自然复原力。

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