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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Validating climate models for computing evapotranspiration in hydrologic studies: how relevant are climate model simulations over Florida?
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Validating climate models for computing evapotranspiration in hydrologic studies: how relevant are climate model simulations over Florida?

机译：验证气候模型以计算水文学研究中的蒸散量：佛罗里达州气候模型模拟的相关性如何？

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摘要

A non-stationary climate requires a new paradigm in the current practice of using past observations for future planning. Next to precipitation, evapotranspiration is the most important variable in water budgets of regions such as Florida, the location of this study. Dynamical simulations using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide all the variables necessary to compute potential or reference crop evapotranspiration (RET) for hydrologic modeling under climate change scenarios. Data sets for the variables necessary to compute RET using the Penman-Monteith model were obtained from RCMs provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program to evaluate their skills in estimating RET during the late twentieth century simulations. Comparison of RET values simulated from RCMs with those computed from a high-resolution weather-monitoring network and satellite data show significant biases in spatial patterns and sea-sonality. In particular, seasonal patterns of RET computed from RCMs show a phase shift with peak values occurring during mid-summer months, whereas observed data show earlier peaks in May and June. The phase shift reflects similar behavior in model predictions of incoming solar radiation. In addition, relative humidity values estimated from RCMs are significantly higher than observed values and the wind speed estimates from many RCMs have a significant bias during dry season months. Further improvements to RCMs may be needed before they can be used effectively for hydrologic modeling under future climate change scenarios.
机译：在目前的做法中，非平稳气候需要使用过去的观测数据进行未来规划的新范例。除降水外，蒸散量是佛罗里达州（本研究所在地）的水量预算中最重要的变量。使用区域气候模型（RCM）进行的动力学模拟提供了在气候变化情景下计算水文模型的潜在或参考作物蒸散量（RET）所需的所有变量。使用Penman-Monteith模型计算RET所必需的变量的数据集是从北美区域气候变化评估计划提供的RCM中获得的，以评估其在20世纪后期模拟中估算RET的技能。从RCM模拟得到的RET值与从高分辨率气象监测网络和卫星数据计算得到的RET值的比较表明，空间模式和海平面性存在明显偏差。特别是，根据RCM计算出的RET的季节性模式显示出一个相移，其峰值出现在仲夏月份，而观察到的数据则显示了5月和6月的较早峰值。相移反映了入射太阳辐射的模型预测中的类似行为。此外，根据RCM估算的相对湿度值明显高于观测值，并且根据许多RCM估算的风速在旱季期间存在明显偏差。在未来气候变化情景下将RCM有效地用于水文模拟之前，可能需要对其进行进一步的改进。

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