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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: A first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco
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High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: A first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco

机译：用于水文影响研究的高分辨率Med-CORDEX区域气候模型模拟：摩洛哥ALADIN-气候模型的首次评估

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In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984-2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively-30 to-57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041-2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between-15 and-19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 ○ C.
机译：在国际CORDEX计划的框架内，地中海地区已经可以使用高分辨率的新区域气候模型（RCM）模拟（Med-CORDEX倡议）。这项研究首次对摩洛哥北部1800 km2集水区中的高分辨率模拟之一的水文影响研究进行了评估。使用来自Med-CORDEX计划的高分辨率RCM（ALADIN-气候），以两种不同的空间分辨率（50和12 km）以及两种不同的辐射浓度，比较了不同的方法来分析气候变化对该流域水文学的影响。路径方案（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）。本研究中解决的主要问题是：（i）RCM分辨率提高对当前气候水文模拟和未来预测有何影响？ （ii）RCM模型的偏差校正和水文模型的参数是否固定并可以转移到不同的气候条件下？ （iii）根据新的辐射集中途径情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5），气候和水文变化信号是什么？结果表明，在12 km处的高分辨率模拟可以更好地再现季节模式，季节分布和极端降水事件。经过校准以在1984-2010年期间的每月时间步长重现径流的水文模型参数，在差分分割样本测试中，在干法校准期和湿法校准期之间没有显示出很大的可变性。但是，通过分位数匹配进行的降水偏差校正在使用相同的差分拆分样本测试方法进行的验证中无法获得令人满意的结果。因此，引入了一种不依赖于任何平稳性假设并产生一系列扰动降水序列的分位数扰动方法。在情景4.5和8.5下的气候变化信号表明，中期（2041-2062）的地表径流分别减少了30％至-57％，而在同一时期，降水的预测范围为15至-温度为+1.3至+1.9○C时为19％。

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