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Simulation-based Seismic Loss Estimation Of Seaport Transportation System

机译：基于仿真的海港运输系统地震损失估计

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摘要

Seaport transportation system is one of the major lifeline systems in modern society and its reliable operation is crucial for the well-being of the public. However, past experiences showed that earthquake damage to port components can severely disrupt terminal operation, and thus negatively impact on the regional economy. The main purpose of this study is to provide a methodology for estimating the effects of the earthquake on the performance of the operation system of a container terminal in seaports. To evaluate the economic loss of damaged system, an analytical framework is developed by integrating simulation models for terminal operation and fragility curves of port components in the context of seismic risk analysis. For this purpose, computerized simulation model is developed and verified with actual terminal operation records. Based on the analytical procedure to assess the seismic performance of the terminal, system fragility curves are also developed. This simulation-based loss estimation methodology can be used not only for estimating the seismically induced revenue loss but also serve as a decision-making tool to select specific seismic retrofit technique on the basis of benefit-cost analysis.
机译：海港运输系统是现代社会的主要生命线系统之一，其可靠的运行对于公众的福祉至关重要。但是，过去的经验表明，地震对港口组成部分的破坏会严重破坏码头的运营，从而对区域经济产生负面影响。这项研究的主要目的是提供一种估计地震对海港集装箱码头操作系统性能的影响的方法。为了评估受损系统的经济损失，在地震风险分析的背景下，通过集成用于码头运行的仿真模型和港口组件的脆性曲线，开发了一个分析框架。为此，开发了计算机仿真模型，并通过实际的终端操作记录进行了验证。根据评估码头抗震性能的分析程序，还绘制了系统脆性曲线。这种基于模拟的损失估计方法不仅可以用于估计地震引起的收入损失，而且还可以作为基于收益成本分析选择特定地震改造技术的决策工具。

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