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Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences

机译：防洪时变可靠性分析

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This paper describes the underlying theory and a practical process for establishing time-dependent reliability models for components in a realistic and complex flood defence system. Though time-dependent reliability models have been applied frequently in, for example, the offshore, structural safety and nuclear industry, application in the safety-critical field of flood defence has to date been limited. The modelling methodology involves identifying relevant variables and processes, characterisation of those processes in appropriate mathematical terms, numerical implementation, parameter estimation and prediction. A combination of stochastic, hierarchical and parametric processes is employed. The approach is demonstrated for selected deterioration mechanisms in the context of a flood defence system. The paper demonstrates that this structured methodology enables the definition of credible statistical models for time-dependence of flood defences in data scarce situations. In the application of those models one of the main findings is that the time variability in the deterioration process tends to be governed the time-dependence of one or a small number of critical attributes. It is demonstrated how the need for further data collection depends upon the relevance of the time-dependence in the performance of the flood defence system.
机译：本文描述了在现实的和复杂的防洪系统中建立组件的时间相关可靠性模型的基础理论和实践过程。尽管时变可靠性模型已经在例如海上，结构安全和核工业中得到了广泛应用，但是迄今为止，在防洪安全关键领域中的应用受到了限制。建模方法包括识别相关变量和过程，以适当的数学术语表征这些过程，数值实现，参数估计和预测。采用了随机，分层和参数过程的组合。在防洪系统的情况下，针对选定的恶化机制证明了该方法。本文表明，这种结构化的方法可以为数据稀少情况下洪水防御的时间依赖性定义可靠的统计模型。在这些模型的应用中，主要发现之一是，劣化过程中的时间可变性往往受一个或少量关键属性的时间依赖性的支配。证明了对进一步数据收集的需求如何取决于防洪系统性能中时间相关性的相关性。

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