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Sampling of uncertain probabilities at event nodes with multiple branches

机译:在具有多个分支的事件节点处的不确定概率抽样

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摘要

When the uncertainty distributions of the conditional probabilities of a complete, mutually exclusive set of three or more branches at an event tree node are independently sampled, it is not possible that their values can both be constrained to add to 1.0, as they must, and also have their sample means converge as sampling size increases to the probabilities' original means, as consistency with the initial point estimates that are these means demands.
机译:当对事件树节点上三个或更多分支的完整,互斥集的条件概率的不确定性分布进行独立采样时,不可能将它们的值都约束为必须加到1.0,并且随着样本数量增加到概率的原始均值,以及与这些均值要求的初始点估计值的一致性,它们的样本均值也会收敛。

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