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Review and analysis of methods for assessing maritime waterway risk based on non-accident critical events detected from AIS data

机译:基于AIS数据检测到的非事故临界事件评估海上水路风险的方法的审查与分析

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摘要

The safe navigation of ships is of high societal concern. A promising approach for analyzing waterway risks is using non-accident critical events as surrogate indicators of collision accidents. These are typically detected in data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS). Recognizing the significant interest in this approach, this article provides a review and analysis of methods based on the detection of non-accident critical events from AIS data, which aim to provide insight into maritime waterway risk. Considering also recent calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research and safety science, each method in the literature is critically reviewed based on five questions: How are non-accident critical events defined? What is the accident-theoretical basis of the method? How are non-accident critical events ranked? How is the method used? To what extent has the method been validated? Based on the results, it is concluded that focus is needed to build evidence of the validity of the models' results, if these are to be effectively used for waterway risk analysis. As a prerequisite, more focus is needed on how exactly non-accident critical events are defined, and what factors are involved in the relation between their occurrence and accident involvement.
机译:安全航行的船舶是高的社会问题。有希望的分析水路风险的方法是使用非事故批判性事件作为碰撞事故的代理指标。这些通常在来自自动识别系统(AIS)中的数据中检测到。本文认识到这一方法的重大兴趣,本文提供了根据AIS数据的非事故关键事件检测的方法审查和分析,这旨在提供对海上水路风险的洞察力。考虑到最近的要求增加了对风险研究和安全科学的基础问题的焦点,文献中的每种方法都根据五个问题批评:如何定义非事故关键事件?该方法的事故是什么意思?什么是非事故关键事件排名的?如何使用方法?该方法在多大程度上已被验证?根据结果​​,结论是,如果要有效地用于水路风险分析,则需要重点是建立模型的有效性的证据。作为先决条件,需要更多的重点是定义了非事故关键事件的究竟如何,以及其发生与事故参与之间的关系。

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