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Reliability analysis of subsea pipelines under spatially varying ground motions by using subset simulation

机译：利用子集模拟分析空间变化地面运动下海底管道的可靠性

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摘要

A computational framework is presented to calculate the reliability of subsea pipelines subjected to a random earthquake. This framework takes full account of the physical features of pipelines and the earthquake, and also retains high computing precision and efficiency. The pipeline and the seabed are modelled as a Timoshenko beam and a Winkler foundation, respectively, while the unilateral contact effect between them is considered. The random earthquake is described by its power spectrum density function and its spatial variation is considered. After suitable discretizations in the spatial domain by the finite element method and the time domain by the Newmark integration method, the dynamic unilateral contact problem is derived as a linear complementarity problem (LCP). Subset Simulation (SS), which is an advanced Monte Carlo simulation approach, is used to estimate the reliability of pipelines. By means of numerical examples, the accuracy and robustness of SS are demonstrated by comparing with the direct Monte Carlo simulation (DMCS). Then a sensitivity analysis of the reliability and a failure analysis are performed to identify the influential system parameters. Finally, failure probabilities of subsea pipelines are assessed for three typical cases, namely, with and without the unilateral contact effect, with different grades of spatial variations and with different free spans. The influences of these effects or parameters on the reliability are discussed qualitatively. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：提出了一种计算框架来计算随机地震作用下海底管道的可靠性。该框架充分考虑了管道和地震的物理特征，并保持了较高的计算精度和效率。管道和海床分别建模为Timoshenko梁和Winkler基础，同时考虑了它们之间的单边接触效应。用功率谱密度函数描述随机地震，并考虑其空间变化。经过有限元方法在空间域中的离散化和Newmark积分方法在时域中的离散化后，动态单边接触问题被导出为线性互补问题（LCP）。子集模拟（SS）是一种先进的蒙特卡洛模拟方法，用于估计管道的可靠性。通过数值例子，通过与直接蒙特卡罗模拟（DMCS）进行比较，证明了SS的准确性和鲁棒性。然后进行可靠性的敏感性分析和故障分析，以识别影响系统的参数。最后，针对三种典型情况评估了海底管道的失效概率，即有无单边接触效应，不同等级的空间变化和不同的自由跨度。定性地讨论了这些影响或参数对可靠性的影响。 （C）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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