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首页> 外文期刊>Reliability Engineering & System Safety >Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning
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Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning

机译：根据不确定的假设和基于假设的计划中的各个方面创建风险管理策略

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摘要

Risk assessments are performed to support decision-making, which could have a long-term impact, for example decisions related to the use of different techniques to plug and abandon an old oil well. The uncertainties related to potential future events and their consequences are in this case often large, which may lead to the introduction of uncertain assumptions and thus make it difficult to ensure that the decision made also provides an acceptable risk level for the future. Recently, a scheme for the systematic treatment of uncertain assumptions in (semi )quantitative risk assessments was proposed. The suggested scheme focused on how a risk analyst can treat and reflect uncertainties related to the assumptions underlying such a risk assessment. In the present paper, we extend this scheme to provide guidance also to risk managers on how to follow up assumptions after the risk assessment has been performed and the decision made. The aim is to provide a systematic scheme for the development of strategies, motivated by so-called assumption-based planning, that risk managers can use to ensure an acceptable long-term risk level. An example is included to illustrate the use of the suggested scheme. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：进行风险评估以支持可能会产生长期影响的决策，例如，与使用不同技术堵塞和废弃旧油井有关的决策。在这种情况下，与潜在的未来事件及其后果相关的不确定性通常很大，这可能导致不确定性假设的引入，因此难以确保所做的决策也为未来提供了可接受的风险水平。最近，提出了一种用于系统处理（半）定量风险评估中不确定假设的方案。建议的方案侧重于风险分析师如何处理和反映与此类风险评估所基于的假设有关的不确定性。在本文中，我们扩展了该计划，以便在风险评估已经执行并做出决定之后，如何跟进假设，从而为风险管理者提供指导。目的是为战略制定提供一个系统的计划，该计划受所谓的基于假设的计划的激励，风险管理者可以使用这些计划来确保可接受的长期风险水平。包含一个示例来说明建议方案的用法。 （C）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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