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首页> 外文期刊>Review of Income and Wealth >NONSTATIONARITY AND STOCHASTIC STABILITY OF RELATIVE INCOME CLUBS
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NONSTATIONARITY AND STOCHASTIC STABILITY OF RELATIVE INCOME CLUBS

机译：相对收入集群的非平稳性和随机稳定性

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摘要

The recent literature on "convergence" of cross-country per capita incomes has been dominated by the two hypotheses of "global convergence" and "club-convergence," pertaining to limits of estimated income distribution dynamics. Utilizing a new measure of "stochastic stability," we establish two stylized facts regarding short- and medium-term distribution dynamics. The first is non-stationarity of transition dynamics, in the sense of changing transition kernels, and the second is emergence, disappearance, and re-emergence of a "stochastically stable" middle income group. This middle income group emerges as the gap between rich and poor clubs gets larger, and it changes the dynamics of transition to and from the rich and poor clubs, eventually narrowing the gap between the poor and rich as the middle club vanishes. Analyzing the stochastic stability of middle-income groups is thus a first step toward understanding higher-order dynamics of narrowing or widening of the gap between rich and poor countries.
机译：近期有关跨国人均收入“趋同”的文献已被“全球趋同”和“俱乐部趋同”两个假说所支配，这两种假说与估计的收入分配动态有关。利用“随机稳定性”的新度量，我们建立了关于短期和中期分布动态的两个程式化事实。从过渡内核的变化来看，第一个是过渡动力学的非平稳性，第二个是“随机稳定”的中等收入群体的出现，消失和重新出现。随着贫富俱乐部之间差距的扩大，出现了这种中等收入群体，它改变了贫富俱乐部之间的过渡动​​力，最终随着贫富俱乐部的消失缩小了贫富差距。因此，分析中等收入群体的随机稳定性是迈向理解富国和穷国之间差距缩小或扩大的高级动态的第一步。

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