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Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach

机译：小行星风险评估：一种概率方法

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摘要

Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probabilitybut not the consequencesof an impact with global effects (cataclysm). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.
机译：在2013年车里雅宾斯克事件之后，小行星带来的风险引起了科学界和决策界的新的关注。它提醒世界，近地物体（NEO）的影响虽然很少见，但有可能对城市和人口造成巨大破坏。已经提出了风险的点估计（例如平均伤亡人数），但是由于小行星撞击的可能性低，后果严重，这些平均值提供了有限的可行信息。尽管需要做更多的工作来进一步完善其输入分布（例如NEO直径），但本文介绍的概率模型可以更完整地评估NEO影响的风险，因为结果是涵盖潜在伤亡范围的分布。该模型基于模块化的模拟，该模拟使用概率输入来估计概率风险度量，包括罕见的小行星撞击风险度量。此分析的说明性结果显示了100年的时间。作为此演示的一部分，我们评估了民防措施在减轻人员伤亡风险方面的有效性。我们发现它们可能是有益的，但不是万能药。我们还计算了全局影响（催化作用）影响的概率而非后果。我们得出结论，继续需要近地天体观测，并需要进行旨在偏转或销毁威胁地球的小行星的空间飞行任务的可行性和降低风险的有效性。

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