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Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs

机译：改进针对业务中断保险需求的灾难建模

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While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane.
机译：虽然财产损坏的灾难（CAT）建模非常成熟，但业务中断（BI）的建模却远远落后。原因之一是CAT模型中功能关系的粗糙性质，这种功能关系将财产损失转化为BI。另一个原因是，BI损失的估计更为复杂，因为在恢复过程中，BI决策很大程度上取决于公共和私人决策，这些策略通过更有效地利用剩余资源来维持业务功能和恢复得更快来缓解损失。本文提出了一个框架，用于改进针对BI保险需求的危险损失估计。改进的数据收集功能可以在公司内的各个设施级别进行分析，从而可以使设施与单个弹性形式的有效性（例如，访问库存，搬迁作业和加快维修）的匹配度得到改善，因此可以提高估算准确性。然后，我们将在飓风造成的损失的案例研究示例中说明这种差异。

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