Our Knowledge of the World is Often Not Simple: Policymakers Should Not Duck that Fact, But Should Deal with It

M. Granger Morgan

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Our Knowledge of the World is Often Not Simple: Policymakers Should Not Duck that Fact, But Should Deal with It

机译：我们对世界的了解往往并不简单：决策者不应该掩盖事实，而应该处理事实

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Although I share some of Bolger and Rowe's reservations about the use of "seed questions" as a means of assessing the quality of judgments provided by experts and developing weights with which to combine their subjective judgments, I do not accept their argument that "for policy making a single representation of the uncertain quantity, and related probability, is commonly needed."

机译：尽管我对Bolger和Rowe的保留意见持保留态度，但他对使用“种子问题”作为评估专家提供的判断质量并发展权重以结合其主观判断的手段持保留态度，但我不接受他们的论点，即“针对政策”通常需要对不确定数量和相关概率进行单一表示。”

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《Risk analysis》 |2015年第1期|19-20|共2页
作者
M. Granger Morgan;
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Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA;

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Our Knowledge of the World is Often Not Simple: Policymakers Should Not Duck that Fact, But Should Deal with It

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