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Risk Analysis of Dust Explosion Scenarios Using Bayesian Networks

机译:贝叶斯网络的粉尘爆炸情景风险分析

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摘要

In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures.
机译:在这项研究中,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的粉尘爆炸情景风险分析方法。我们的方法还受益于蝴蝶结图,可以更好地表示出尘埃爆炸的影响因素和后果之间存在的逻辑关系。在本研究中,评估了粉尘爆炸场景的风险,同时考虑了常见原因故障以及根事件之间的依存关系以及可能的后果。通过诊断分析,确定尘埃颗粒特性,氧气浓度和人员安全培训是导致粉尘爆炸的最关键的根源。概率适应性概念还用于顺序更新,从而从过去的粉尘爆炸事故中学习,这在动态风险评估和管理中非常重要。我们还将拟议的方法应用于案例研究中,以对粉尘爆炸场景进行建模,估算设想的风险并确定系统中需要采取其他安全措施的脆弱部分。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2015年第2期|278-291|共14页
  • 作者单位

    Mem Univ Newfoundland, Fac Engn & Appl Sci, SREG, St John, NF A1B 3X5, Canada;

    Mem Univ Newfoundland, Fac Engn & Appl Sci, SREG, St John, NF A1B 3X5, Canada;

    Mem Univ Newfoundland, Fac Engn & Appl Sci, SREG, St John, NF A1B 3X5, Canada;

    Dalhousie Univ, Dept Proc Engn & Appl Sci, Halifax, NS B3J 2X4, Canada;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Bayesian network; bow-tie model; dust explosion; risk analysis;

    机译:贝叶斯网络领结模型扬尘爆炸风险分析;

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