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The Precautionary Principle Is Incoherent

机译：预防原则是不连贯的

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摘要

This article argues that no version of the precautionary principle can be reasonably applied to decisions that may lead to fatal outcomes. In support of this strong claim, a number of desiderata are proposed, which reasonable rules for rational decision making ought to satisfy. Thereafter, two impossibility theorems are proved, showing that no version of the precautionary principle can satisfy the proposed desiderata. These theorems are directly applicable to recent discussions of the precautionary principle in medicine, biotechnology, environmental management, and related fields. The impossibility theorems do not imply, however, that the precautionary principle is of no relevance at all in policy discussions. Even if it is not a reasonable rule for rational decision making, it is possible to interpret the precautionary principle in other ways, e.g., as an argumentative tool or as an epistemic principle favoring a reversed burden of proof.
机译：本文认为，任何预防原则都不能合理地应用于可能导致致命后果的决策。为了支持这一强有力的主张，提出了许多要求，对于合理的决策，应该满足这些合理的规则。此后，证明了两个不可能定理，表明没有任何预防原则可以满足所提出的要求。这些定理直接适用于医学，生物技术，环境管理及相关领域中有关预防原则的最新讨论。不可能定理并不意味着预防原则在政策讨论中根本不相关。即使这不是理性决策的合理规则，也有可能以其他方式解释预防原则，例如，作为论证工具或作为支持反向举证责任的认知原则。

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