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Further Notes on Public Response to Uncertainty in Risks and Science

机译：关于公众应对风险和科学不确定性的进一步说明

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Given the prevalence of uncertainty and variability in estimates of environmental health risks, it is important to know how citizens interpret information representing uncertainty in risk estimates. Ranges of risk estimates from a hypothetical industry source elicited divergent evaluations of risk assessors' honesty and competence among New Jersey residents within one mile of one or more factories. A plurality saw ranges of risk estimates as both honest and competent, but with most judging such ranges as deficient on one or both dimensions. They wanted definitive conclusions about safety, tended to believe the high end of the range was more likely to be an accurate estimate of the risk, and believed that institutions only discuss risks when they are "high." Acknowledgment of scientific, as opposed to self-interested, reasons for uncertainty and disputes among experts was low. Attitude toward local industry seemed associated with, if not a cause of, attitudes about ranges of risk estimates. These reactions by industry neighbors appear to replicate the findings of Johnson and Slovic (1995, 1998), despite the hypothetical producer of risk estimates being industry instead of government. Respondents were older and less educated on average than were the earlier samples, but more diverse. Regression analyses suggested attitude toward industry was a major factor in these reactions, although other explanations (e.g., level of scientific understanding independent of general education) were not tested in this study.
机译：考虑到环境健康风险的估计中普遍存在不确定性和可变性，因此重要的是要了解市民如何解释代表风险估计中不确定性的信息。假设行业来源的风险估计范围引起对一英里或更多工厂一英里范围内的新泽西州居民之间的风险评估者的诚实和能力的评估不同。多数人认为风险估计的范围既诚实又能胜任，但大多数认为此类范围在一个或两个维度上都是不足的。他们想要关于安全性的明确结论，倾向于认为范围的上限更可能是对风险的准确估计，并且认为机构仅在风险处于“高”时才进行讨论。相对于自身利益，对科学的不确定性和专家之间的争议的认识很低。对本地行业的态度似乎与对风险估计范围的态度有关（如果不是原因的话）。尽管风险估计的假设产生者是行业而不是政府，但行业邻居的这些反应似乎重复了Johnson和Slovic（1995，1998）的发现。与早期样本相比，受访者年龄更大，受教育程度平均较低，但差异更大。回归分析表明，尽管其他解释（例如独立于通识教育的科学理解水平）并未在本研究中进行测试，但对这些反应的主要因素是对产业的态度。

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