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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses, Validity, and Respondents' Evaluations
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Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses, Validity, and Respondents' Evaluations

机译：衡量主观概率：回应模式对焦点回应，有效性和受访者评估的使用的影响

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摘要

Subjective probabilities are central to risk assessment, decision making, and risk communication efforts. Surveys measuring probability judgments have traditionally used open-ended response modes, asking participants to generate a response between 0% and 100%. A typical finding is the seemingly excessive use of 50%, perhaps as an expression of I don't know. In an online survey with a nationally representative sample of the Dutch population, we examined the effect of response modes on the use of 50% and other focal responses, predictive validity, and respondents' survey evaluations. Respondents assessed the probability of dying, getting the flu, and experiencing other health-related events. They were randomly assigned to a traditional open-ended response mode, a visual linear scale ranging from 0% to 100%, or a version of that visual linear scale on which a magnifier emerged after clicking on it. We found that, compared to the open-ended response mode, the visual linear and magnifier scale each reduced the use of 50%, 0%, and 100% responses, especially among respondents with low numeracy. Responses given with each response mode were valid, in terms of significant correlations with health behavior and outcomes. Where differences emerged, the visual scales seemed to have slightly better validity than the open-ended response mode. Both high-numerate and low-numerate respondents' evaluations of the surveys were highest for the visual linear scale. Our results have implications for subjective probability elicitation and survey design.
机译：主观概率对于风险评估，决策制定和风险沟通工作至关重要。传统上，测量概率判断的调查使用开放式响应模式，要求参与者生成0％至100％之间的响应。一个典型的发现是看似过度使用了50％，也许这是我所不知道的表达。在一项对荷兰人口具有全国代表性的样本进行的在线调查中，我们研究了回应模式对50％使用率和其他焦点回应，预测效度以及受访者调查评估的影响。受访者评估了死亡，患流感和经历其他与健康相关的事件的可能性。他们被随机分配到传统的开放式响应模式，视觉线性标度，范围从0％到100％，或者是单击后出现放大镜的视觉线性标度的版本。我们发现，与开放式响应模式相比，视觉线性比例和放大镜比例分别减少了50％，0％和100％响应的使用，尤其是在计算能力低的受访者中。就与健康行为和结果的显着相关而言，每种响应模式给出的响应都是有效的。在出现差异的地方，视觉量表的有效性似乎比开放式响应模式更好。在视觉线性量表上，无论是高数量还是低数量的受访者对调查的评价都是最高的。我们的结果对主观概率的启发和调查设计具有启示意义。

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