Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia

Anthony M. Barrett; Seth D. Baum; Kelly Hostetler

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Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia

机译：分析和减少美俄之间无意间发生核战争的风险

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This article develops a mathematical modeling framework using fault trees and Pois-son processes for analyzing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war from U.S. or Russian misinterpretation of false alarms in early warning systems, and for assessing the potential value of options to reduce the risks of inadvertent nuclear war. The model also uses publicly available information on early warning systems, near-miss incidents, and other factors to estimate probabilities of a U.S.-Russia crisis, the rates of false alarms, and the probabilities that leaders will launch missiles in response to a false alarm. The article discusses results, uncertainties, limitations, and policy implications. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Science & Global Security to view the free online appendix with additional tables and figures.

机译：本文使用故障树和泊松过程开发了一个数学建模框架，用于分析美国或俄罗斯对预警系统中错误警报的误解造成的无意核战争风险，并评估降低无意风险的潜在选择价值核战争。该模型还使用有关预警系统，未遂事件和其他因素的公开信息来估计美俄危机的可能性，错误警报的发生率以及领导人为响应错误警报而发射导弹的可能性。本文讨论了结果，不确定性，局限性和政策含义。补充材料可用于本文。转到出版商的《科学与全球安全》在线版本，以查看带有其他表格和数字的免费在线附录。

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《Science & global security》 |2013年第janaadeca期|106-133|共28页
作者
Anthony M. Barrett; Seth D. Baum; Kelly Hostetler;
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作者单位

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, P.O. Box 85561, Seattle, WA 98145-1561;

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA;

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA;

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Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia

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