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Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

机译：利用日冕物质抛射和太阳风条件进行地磁风暴两步预报

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摘要

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz < -5 nT or E > 3 mV/m for t > 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002,2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (u), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.
机译：为了预测地磁风暴，我们检查了最初观测到的日冕物质抛射（CME）参数，并在先前的研究中引入了经验性风暴预报模型。现在，我们建议进行两步预测，不仅要考虑在太阳附近观测到的CME参数，还要考虑地球附近的太阳风状况，以提高预测能力。我们考虑了这项研究得出的太阳风经验标准（对于中度暴风雨，Dst小于-50 nT的中度暴风雨，对于t> 2 h，Bz <-5 nT或E> 3 mV / m）和由Temerin和Li开发的Dst模型（2002,2006）（TL模型）。使用1997年至2003年之间的55个CME-Dst对，我们的太阳风标准对31个暴风事件的预测（90％）比基于TL模型的预测（87％）略好。但是，后者对24个非暴风雨事件的预测更好（88％），而前者正确地预测了其中的71％。然后，我们执行了两步预测。结果如下：（i）对于使用CME参数错误预测的15个事件，可以根据太阳风状况正确预测12种情况（80％）； （ii）如果我们在同时满足CME和太阳风条件的情况下预测暴风雨（n），则临界成功指数将变得比仅使用CME参数的预测高，但正确预测的只有25个暴风雨事件（81％） ; （iii）如果我们在满足以下任一条件时预测暴风雨（u），则所有地磁暴风雨都可以正确预测。

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  • 来源
    《Space Weather》 |2014年第4期|246-256|共11页
  • 作者

    R.-S. Kim; Y.-J. Moon; N. Gopalswamy; Y.-D. Park; Y.-H. Kim;

  • 作者单位

    Astronomy and Space Program Division, Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea;

    School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, South Korea;

    Heliophysics Division, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA;

    Astronomy and Space Program Division, Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea;

    Astronomy and Space Program Division, Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Storms; Wind forecasting; Predictive models; Indexes;

    机译：风暴;风预报;预测模型;指标;

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