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Vain or able? Strong inference and the efficacy debate

机译：徒劳无功？强大推论和疗效辩论

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Purpose - This study aims to address the efficacy debate by exploring the nature of how prior team level performance affects future performance. That is, the purpose of this study is to understand whether or not the boost of efficacy associated with success leads to overconfidence that harms performance or to motivation that enhances performance. Design/methodology/approach - This study used a quantitative approach to test competing hypotheses derived from both social cognitive theory and control theory. Specifically, the study made use of archival National Football League data, containing 5,120 longitudinal team level observations. This paper uses multi-level modeling to analyze how prior team level performance affected future performance episodes. Findings - The findings of this study suggest that prior success leads to overconfidence which ultimately harms future team performance. Therefore, the findings support control theory in favor of the social cognitive theory. However, this study finds that the detrimental effects of overconfidence could be offset by monitoring and work breaks. Research limitations/implications - Due to the nature of the archival data source, it was not possible to directly measure efficacy. Thus, efficacy is inferred based on past performance outcomes. Practical implications - This study suggests that it is important for managers and team leaders to pay careful attention to their team after successful performances. Specifically, team leaders may want to monitor their members or give them a break after successful performance episodes to avoid the negative effects of overconfidence. Originality/value - This paper provides a direct test of the efficacy debate at the team level.
机译：目的 - 本研究旨在通过探索先前的团队级别绩效如何影响未来表现的性质来解决疗效辩论。也就是说，本研究的目的是了解与成功相关的疗效的促进是否导致过度抵抗危害性能或增强性能的动机。设计/方法/方法 - 本研究采用了定量方法来测试源自社会认知理论和控制理论的竞争假设。具体而言，该研究利用档案国家足球联赛数据，含有5,120个纵向团队一级观察。本文采用多级别建模来分析先前的团队级别表现如何影响未来的绩效剧集。调查结果 - 本研究的结果表明，先前的成功导致过度交付，最终会损害未来的团队表现。因此，研究结果支持控制理论，支持社会认知理论。然而，这项研究发现，通过监测和工作休息，过度信云的有害影响可能是抵消。研究限制/影响 - 由于档案数据源的性质，无法直接测量功效。因此，基于过去的性能结果推断出有效性。实际意义 - 本研究表明，经理人和团队领导人很重要，以便在成功的表演后仔细关注他们的团队。具体而言，团队领导人可能希望在成功的绩效发作后给予他们的成员或给予他们休息，以避免过度控制的负面影响。原创性/值 - 本文提供了对团队级别的疗效辩论的直接测试。

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