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Exploring the future: Runtime scenario selection for complex and time-bound decisions

机译：探索未来：选择运行时方案以应对复杂且有时限的决策

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摘要

Scenarios are designed to support decision-makers in gaining a better understanding of the consequences of decisions. Despite their popularity in IT for Foresight, a major obstacle is the complexity of strategic decisions and the resulting multitude of scenarios. Therefore choices need to be made, which scenarios to fully work out, by which experts and in which level of detail. This paper presents an approach to support making these trade-offs between accuracy and resources spent by prioritising scenarios based on their significance for the decision even on the basis of incomplete information. This approach combines theoretical findings in decision theory with results that were elicited in interviews and workshops with decision-makers and experts. In this manner, we ensure to adhere to time and effort constraints of the involved experts, while taking into account the decision-makers' preferences and requirements. The emergency management use-case shows that the resulting reduced set of scenarios leads to the same ranking of decision alternatives as the entire set of scenarios. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：方案旨在支持决策者更好地理解决策的后果。尽管它们在IT领域具有远见卓识，但主要的障碍是战略决策的复杂性和由此产生的众多方案。因此，需要做出选择，要完全解决哪些方案，由哪个专家以及在哪个详细级别上进行选择。本文提出了一种方法，可通过根据方案对决策的重要性（即使是在信息不完整的情况下）的重要性来对方案进行优先级排序，从而在准确性和所用资源之间进行权衡。这种方法将决策理论中的理论发现与在与决策者和专家进行的访谈和研讨会中得出的结果相结合。通过这种方式，我们确保遵守相关专家的时间和精力限制，同时考虑到决策者的偏好和要求。应急管理用例表明，所减少的场景集导致了与整个场景集相同的决策备选方案等级。 （C）2014 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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