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Pre-launch new product demand forecasting using the Bass model: A statistical and machine learning-based approach

机译：使用Bass模型预发布新产品需求预测：一种基于统计和机器学习的方法

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摘要

This study proposes a novel approach to the pre-launch forecasting of new product demand based on the Bass model and statistical and machine learning algorithms. The Bass model is used to explain the diffusion process of products while statistical and machine learning algorithms are employed to predict two Bass model parameters prior to launch. Initially, two types of databases (DBs) are constructed: a product attribute DB and a product diffusion DB. Taking the former as inputs and the latter as outputs, single prediction models are developed using six regression algorithms, on the basis of which an ensemble prediction model is constructed in order to enhance predictive power. The experimental validation shows that most single prediction models outperform the conventional analogical method and that the ensemble model improves prediction accuracy further. Based on the developed models, an illustrative example of 3D TV is provided.
机译：这项研究基于Bass模型以及统计和机器学习算法，为新产品需求的启动前预测提出了一种新颖的方法。 Bass模型用于解释产品的扩散过程，而统计和机器学习算法则用于在发布之前预测两个Bass模型参数。最初，构造了两种类型的数据库（DB）：产品属性DB和产品扩散DB。以前者为输入，后者为输出，使用六个回归算法开发单个预测模型，在此基础上构建整体预测模型以增强预测能力。实验验证表明，大多数单个预测模型都优于传统的类比方法，而集成模型则进一步提高了预测准确性。基于开发的模型，提供了3D TV的说明性示例。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2014年第7期|49-64|共16页
  • 作者

    Hakyeon Lee; Sang Gook Kim; Hyun-woo Park; Pilsung Kang;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 172 Gongreung 2-dong, Nowon-gu, Seoul 139-746,South Korea;

    Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), 66 Hoegi-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-741, South Korea;

    Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), 66 Hoegi-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-741, South Korea;

    Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 172 Gongreung 2-dong, Nowon-gu, Seoul 139-746,South Korea;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Pre-launch forecasting; Bass model; Multivariate linear regression; Machine learning; Ensemble;

    机译：发布前的预测;低音模型多元线性回归;机器学习;合奏;

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