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Urban retrofitting: Identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques

机译:城市改造:使用表演和预见性技术识别破坏性和可持续性技术

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摘要

Cities, which are now inhabited by a majority of the world's population, are not only an important source of global environmental and resource depletion problems, but can also act as important centres of technological innovation and social learning in the continuing quest for a low carbon future. Planning and managing large-scale transitions in cities to deal with these pressures require an understanding of urban retrofitting at city scale. In this context performative techniques (such as backcasting and roadmapping) can provide valuable tools for helping cities develop a strategic view of the future. However, it is also important to identify 'disruptive' and 'sustaining' technologies which may contribute to city-based sustainability transitions. This paper presents research findings from the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project, and explores the relationship between technology roadmaps and transition theory literature, highlighting the research gaps at urban/city level. The paper develops a research methodology to describe the development of three guiding visions for city-regional retrofit futures, and identifies key sustaining and disruptive technologies at city scale within these visions using foresight (horizon scanning) techniques. The implications of the research for city-based transition studies and related methodologies are discussed.
机译:现在,全世界大多数人口居住的城市,不仅是全球环境和资源枯竭问题的重要来源,而且在不断寻求低碳未来的过程中,还可以充当技术创新和社会学习的重要中心。规划和管理城市中的大型过渡以应对这些压力,需要了解城市规模的城市改造。在这种情况下,表演技术(例如回播和映射)可以为帮助城市发展对未来的战略视野提供有价值的工具。但是,确定可能有助于城市可持续发展转型的“破坏性”和“可持续性”技术也很重要。本文介绍了EPSRC Retrofit 2050项目的研究成果,并探讨了技术路线图与过渡理论文献之间的关系,突出了城市/城市层面的研究差距。本文开发了一种研究方法,描述了城市区域改造未来的三个指导性愿景的发展,并使用远见(水平扫描)技术在这些愿景中确定了城市规模内的关键维持和破坏性技术。讨论了该研究对基于城市的过渡研究和相关方法论的意义。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2014年第11期|131-144|共14页
  • 作者单位

    School of Construction Management and Engineering, University of Reading, Engineering Building, Whiteknights, PO Box 205, Reading, Berks RG6 6AY, UK;

    Low Carbon Research Institute, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University, Bute Building, King Edward Ⅶ Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3NB, UK;

    Dept of Real Estate and Construction, Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Gipsy Lane, Headington, Oxford OX3 0BP, UK;

    Deportment of Planning, Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Gipsy Lane, Headington, Oxford OX3 0BP, UK;

    Low Carbon Research Institute, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University, Bute Building, King Edward Ⅶ Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3NB, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Low carbon; Energy; Water; Waste; Cities; Transition theory; Roadmaps; Retrofit;

    机译:低碳;能源;水;浪费;城市;过渡理论;路线图;翻新;

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