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A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study

机译：技术预见方法论：建议和实地研究

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The study of one's own business future is a distinctive element of a business strategy. Innovative companies are aware of weak signals coming from the periphery and of trends in their industry, and they monitor the coherence between weak signals and trends (the external perspective) and strategic direction (the internal perspective).The literature today does not provide well-framed and complete methodologies for assessing the coherence among trends, vision and products. Therefore, the authors propose a methodology called "the methodology of future coverage", which measures how much the strategy oriented to the future effectively covers trends and megatrends. In other words, it helps to check the contents and the coherence of the firm' vision and products and those of the trends that will have relevance for the future of the industry, and this process supplies firms with supplementary information on how to improve. The authors tested this methodology and exemplified its use via the Eurotech case study, employing longitudinal analysis. The methodology can be useful as a tool for diagnosing the coherence between trends and company strategy. Moreover, from a dynamic point of view, it can be used as a tool to check on the company's progress in following up on trends by adapting its strategy over time. Finally, the methodology can be also used as a tool for cross-comparison of the "level of future orientation" among companies in the same industry.
机译：对自己的商业未来的研究是一种商业策略的独特元素。创新型公司意识到外围的微弱信号和行业趋势，并监视微弱的信号与趋势（外部观点）与战略方向（内部观点）之间的一致性。当今的文献并未提供以下方面的信息：框架化的完整方法论，用于评估趋势，愿景和产品之间的一致性。因此，作者提出了一种称为“未来覆盖范围的方法”的方法，该方法可以衡量面向未来的策略在多大程度上有效地涵盖了趋势和大趋势。换句话说，它有助于检查公司愿景和产品的内容，一致性以及与行业未来相关的趋势的一致性，并且此过程为公司提供了有关如何改进的补充信息。作者对这种方法进行了测试，并通过纵向分析通过Eurotech案例研究举例说明了该方法的使用。该方法可以用作诊断趋势和公司战略之间一致性的工具。而且，从动态的角度来看，它可以用作通过调整公司战略来检查公司跟进趋势的进度的工具。最后，该方法还可以用作在同一行业的公司之间交叉比较“未来定位水平”的工具。

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