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Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

机译：评估气候变化对卡拉布里亚（意大利南部）橄榄开花的影响

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In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are consid ered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two represen tative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.
机译：在物候研究中，考虑植物的生长及其与气象条件的关系，以研究气候变化对许多农作物特性的影响。在这项工作中，研究了气候变化对意大利南部卡拉布里亚的橄榄树（Olea europaea L.）开花的影响。橄榄是地中海地区最重要的植物之一，而卡拉布里亚（Calabria）则是该地区地理和气候上最具代表性的地区之一。这项工作分为两个主要的研究活动。首先，研究了卡拉布里亚橄榄树的行为以及温度对该作物物候期的影响。通过对三个实验场中为期11年（1999-2009年）的花粉数据进行分析，采用了一种生物生物学方法来确定橄榄的开花日期。其次，对卡拉布里亚的气候变化进行了高时空分辨率的研究。动态降尺度程序适用于从两个代表性气候周期（1981-2000年和2081-2100年）的一般环流模型得出的大规模气候分析的区域化； A2 IPCC情景用于未来的气候预测。这项工作的最后一部分是整合两项研究活动的结果，以预测未来气候条件下的橄榄开花变化。与我们以前的工作一致，我们发现物候期与温度之间存在显着相关性。在二十一世纪，卡拉布里亚的花粉季节平均每升高一度，预计可提前9天左右。根据物候模型的结果，根据对卡拉布里亚的未来气候预测，预计根据区域的不同，橄榄的最大开花期预计将在10到34天之间。这项工作的结果对于适应和减缓战略以及对生物和环境变化进行具体评估很有用。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2012年第4期|p.531-540|共10页
  • 作者

    Elenio Avolio; Fabio Orlandi; Carlo Bellecci; Marco Fornaciari; Stefano Federico;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Section of Lamezia Terme,Lamezia Terme, Italy;

    Department of Applied Biology, University of Perugia,Perugia, Italy;

    CRATI s.c.r.l,Rende, Italy,Department of Mechanical Engineering,University of Rome 'Tor Vergata',Rome, Italy;

    Department of Applied Biology, University of Perugia,Perugia, Italy;

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Section of Lamezia Terme,Lamezia Terme, Italy;

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