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Controlling for endogeneity between bus headway and bus ridership: A case study of the Orlando region

机译：控制公交车行驶距离与乘车人之间的内生性：以奥兰多地区为例

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In this study, we develop an advanced econometric model that considers the potential endogeneity of stop level headway in modeling bus ridership. We recognize that bus stops with higher potential demand are also like to have higher frequency of buses (or lower headway between buses). We consider headway endogeneity by proposing a simultaneous equation system that considers headway and ridership in a joint framework. The proposed model is developed employing stop level ridership data from the Orlando region for 11 quadrimesters (four-month time periods). The presence of multiple data points for each stop allows us to develop panel models for headway, boarding, and alighting. The headway variable is modeled using a panel ordered logit model while the ridership variables are modeled using a panel grouped ordered logit models. The model estimation results justify the consideration of headway endogeneity in bus ridership analysis. To illustrate the value of the proposed model, a validation exercise and a policy analysis exercise are conducted.
机译：在这项研究中，我们开发了一种先进的计量经济学模型，该模型在对公交车乘客进行建模时考虑了停车位进度的潜在内生性。我们认识到，潜在需求更高的公交车站也希望公交车的频率更高（或公交车之间的行驶距离较小）。我们通过提出在联合框架中考虑车速和乘客量的联立方程组来考虑车速内生性。所提出的模型是使用奥兰多地区11个季度（四个月的时间段）的停车位乘客量数据开发的。每个站点都存在多个数据点，这使我们能够开发出车头，登机和下车的面板模型。使用面板排序的logit模型对车距变量进行建模，而使用面板分组的有序logit模型对车次变量进行建模。模型估计结果证明了在乘车分析中考虑车头内生性的合理性。为了说明所提出模型的价值，我们进行了验证和政策分析。

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